Own-Weighted
Research #1 performer. Ranks movers by weighted score: movement × (1 + (50 − ownership)/100). Rewards lower ownership among equal-movement games. Smart signal-based fills.
Raw EE
Sorts movers by Effective Edge — estimated ATS cover probability from key number analysis. Pure cover probability ranking. Smart fills by signal count.
Composite Score
Sorts all games by composite: P(cover_adj) × (1 − own)^0.05 with divisional (+3pp), favorite (+1.5pp), primetime (−0.2pp) adjustments. Ownership-aware but EE-dominated.
High Leverage
Sorts movers by leverage ratio (EE% ÷ ownership%). Targets games where edge exceeds field ownership. More contrarian, fewer wins but potential rank upside.
PLM — Sharp Own
Ranks movers by absolute movement, breaks ties by lowest sharp-cluster ownership (26 identified sharp CBS bettors). Smart fills.
PLM — ESPN Own
Ranks movers by absolute movement, breaks ties by lowest ESPN public ATS ownership (~80K pickers). Smart fills.
PLM — Key+Dog
Ranks movers by absolute movement, prefers games crossing key numbers (±3, ±7) with underdog status. Best avg rank in 3-season backtest.
Edge Fade
Quality-filtered contrarian. Only considers movers with EE >= 54% (proven edge), then sorts by lowest ownership. You get contrarian differentiation without sacrificing cover probability. Fills with lowest-ownership games that have 1+ signal.
Dog Value
Sharp-money contrarian. Prioritizes underdog movers (line moved toward the dog), home dogs first. Sorted by lowest ownership within each tier. Sharp money backing home dogs is a classic profitable angle the public fades.
Lowest Ownership
Pure contrarian. Picks the 6 games with the lowest predicted field ownership regardless of movement or EE. Maximizes rank differentiation from the field at the cost of win rate. No PLM filter.
Contrarian Dogs
Picks only underdog sides, sorted by lowest ownership. Ignores line movement entirely. Underdogs cover ~50% ATS but the field avoids them — combining underdog + low ownership gives maximum separation from chalk-heavy opponents.
MNF Hedge ON: Both entries always include MNF. If both are 5-0 going into MNF, they pick opposite sides (guaranteeing one 6-0). MNF Hedge OFF: All 6 picks come purely from the strategy; MNF competes on merit.
Movers = games with ≥1.0 pts of line movement since Tuesday. Fills = non-movers selected by signal stacking (underdog + contrarian + divisional).
Payout estimates use simplified schedule (~$26K across top 20). Entry cost: $375/season. Estimates are ±20%.
Data quality:
FULL DATA = actual CBS tuesday lines (2023–2025).
PROXY LINES = nfelo model tuesday proxy (~89% agreement with actual CBS lines, 2018–2022).
IMPUTED FIELD = end-of-season standings from CBS historical data (vs simulated weekly fields).