NFL Pick-6 ATS
Simulation Weekly Pick Tester Pick Strategies Read the Report
Picks Standings
WK 5 · 14 games · 7 movers · Full card
Entry A 0/6
Entry B 0/6
1 Stale Line — Movement since Tuesday. Benefiting side covers 54–65% depending on magnitude.
2 Favorite Bias — Underdog + contrarian. Pool picks favorites 65% of the time; going the other way when signals align.
3 Game Theory — Low ownership = more ranking leverage. A correct pick at 15% ownership moves rank 2× vs 60%.
Tier 1: Highest Edge Key number crossings. Cover probability 58%+.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
1 HOU @ BAL Sun 1:00 HOU DOG +3.5 → -2.5
67.0%
6.0 pts moved KEY
65.0 1.4× Underdog +3.5 ESPN contrarian (46%)
ESPN
46%
CBS*
58%
1 2
2 SF @ LAR Thu LAR FAV -5.5 → -8.5
62.4%
3.0 pts moved KEY
62.3 0.8× Favorite
ESPN
74%
CBS*
85%
1 DIV THU
3 DAL @ NYJ Sun 1:00 NYJ DOG +2.5 → -1.5
58.5%
4.0 pts moved KEY
57.7 2.5× Underdog +2.5 ESPN contrarian (23%)
ESPN
23%
CBS*
30%
1 2 3
Tier 3: Marginal Movers Line moved ≥1.0 but didn't cross key numbers. Edge is thinner.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
4 NYG @ NO Sun 1:00 NO FAV -1.5 → -2.5
52.9%
1.0 pts moved
53.6 2.1× Favorite
ESPN
25%
CBS*
37%
1 3
Tier 2: Solid Movers Meaningful stale-line edge (54–58%). Check leverage for best value.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
5 LV @ IND Sun 1:00 IND FAV -6.5 → -7.5
55.2%
1.0 pts moved
53.1 0.8× Favorite
ESPN
73%
CBS*
86%
1
Tier 3: Marginal Movers Line moved ≥1.0 but didn't cross key numbers. Edge is thinner.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
6 TEN @ ARI Sun 4:25 TEN DOG +8.5 → +7.5
53.1%
1.0 pts moved
52.1 1.7× Underdog +8.5 ESPN contrarian (31%)
ESPN
31%
CBS*
30%
1 2 3
Tier 2: Solid Movers Meaningful stale-line edge (54–58%). Check leverage for best value.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
7 MIA @ CAR Sun 1:00 MIA DOG +1.5 → -1.0
54.5%
2.5 pts moved
51.9 0.9× Underdog +1.5
ESPN
63%
CBS*
72%
1 2
Monday Night (always pick) MNF included every week for 5-0 hedge opportunity.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
8 KC @ JAC Mon Night JAC DOG +3.5 — 48.8 Underdog +3.5 ESPN contrarian (32%)
ESPN
32%
CBS*
26%
2 3 MNF MNF
Fill Candidates: Strong Signals Non-movers with 3+ stacking signals (dog + contrarian + div/prime).
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
9 NE @ BUF Sun Night NE DOG +7.5 — 51.8 Underdog +7.5 ESPN contrarian (30%)
ESPN
30%
CBS*
27%
2 3 DIV SNF
10 DET @ CIN Sun 4:25 CIN DOG +10.5 — 49.5 Underdog +10.5 ESPN contrarian (19%)
ESPN
19%
CBS*
30%
2 3
11 WAS @ LAC Sun 4:25 WAS DOG +2.5 — 49.4 Underdog +2.5 ESPN contrarian (20%)
ESPN
20%
CBS*
12%
2 3
Remaining Games Few stacking signals. Low priority unless something changes.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
12 TB @ SEA Sun 4:25 SEA FAV -3.5 — 50.5 Favorite
ESPN
32%
CBS*
28%
3
13 DEN @ PHI Sun 1:00 DEN DOG +4.5 — 49.0 Underdog +4.5 ESPN contrarian (33%)
ESPN
33%
CBS*
33%
2 3
14 MIN @ CLE Sun 1:00 CLE DOG +3.5 — 48.9 Underdog +3.5 ESPN contrarian (35%)
ESPN
35%
CBS*
27%
2 3

Edge = estimated cover probability from key number analysis (movers only).

Composite = P(coveradj) × (1 − ownership). Expected rank impact: cover probability × fraction of field you gain on. Higher = better. Sorted by composite within each tier.

Leverage = edge% ÷ ownership%. Above 1.0× = edge exceeds field ownership. Higher = more standings value per pick.

* CBS% is predicted from historical behavioral models, not observed picks. ESPN% is real observed data.

Dots: 1 stale-line edge 2 underdog 3 contrarian (<40% ESPN)