NFL Pick-6 ATS
Simulation Weekly Pick Tester
Picks Standings
WK 2 · 16 games · 9 movers · Full card
Entry A 0/6
Entry B 0/6
1 Stale Line — Movement since Tuesday. Benefiting side covers 54–65% depending on magnitude.
2 Favorite Bias — Underdog + contrarian. Pool picks favorites 65% of the time; going the other way when signals align.
3 Game Theory — Low ownership = more ranking leverage. A correct pick at 15% ownership moves rank 2× vs 60%.
Tier 1: Highest Edge Key number crossings. Cover probability 58%+.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
1 ATL @ MIN Sun Night ATL DOG +4.5 → +3.0
60.5%
1.5 pts moved KEY
58.4 1.3× Underdog +4.5 ESPN contrarian (47%)
ESPN
47%
CBS*
50%
1 2 SNF
2 SF @ NO Sun 1:00 NO DOG +4.5 → +3.0
59.4%
1.5 pts moved KEY
58.2 1.8× Underdog +4.5 ESPN contrarian (32%)
ESPN
32%
CBS*
39%
1 2 3
Tier 3: Marginal Movers Line moved ≥1.0 but didn't cross key numbers. Edge is thinner.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
3 NYG @ DAL Sun 1:00 NYG DOG +6.5 → +5.5
53.1%
1.0 pts moved
55.4 2.4× Underdog +6.5 ESPN contrarian (22%)
ESPN
22%
CBS*
24%
1 2 3 DIV
4 NE @ MIA Sun 1:00 MIA FAV -1.5 → -2.5
52.1%
1.0 pts moved
55.3 1.4× Favorite
ESPN
37%
CBS*
50%
1 3 DIV
Tier 1: Highest Edge Key number crossings. Cover probability 58%+.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
5 SEA @ PIT Sun 1:00 PIT FAV -2.5 → -3.5
58.2%
1.0 pts moved KEY
55.3 0.7× Favorite
ESPN
78%
CBS*
87%
1
Tier 3: Marginal Movers Line moved ≥1.0 but didn't cross key numbers. Edge is thinner.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
6 BUF @ NYJ Sun 1:00 NYJ DOG +6.5 → +5.5
52.9%
1.0 pts moved
54.9 1.9× Underdog +6.5 ESPN contrarian (28%)
ESPN
28%
CBS*
37%
1 2 3 DIV
7 CHI @ DET Sun 1:00 DET FAV -5.5 → -6.5
53.1%
1.0 pts moved
54.5 0.8× Favorite
ESPN
67%
CBS*
83%
1 DIV
8 CLE @ BAL Sun 1:00 BAL FAV -11.5 → -12.5
51.0%
1.0 pts moved
53.4 1.0× Favorite
ESPN
53%
CBS*
75%
1 DIV
Tier 2: Solid Movers Meaningful stale-line edge (54–58%). Check leverage for best value.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
9 DEN @ IND Sun 4:25 IND DOG +2.5 → +1.0
54.1%
1.5 pts moved
52.7 1.3× Underdog +2.5 ESPN contrarian (42%)
ESPN
42%
CBS*
49%
1 2
Monday Night (always pick) MNF included every week for 5-0 hedge opportunity.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
10 LAC @ LV Mon Night LV DOG +3.5 — 52.0 Underdog +3.5 ESPN contrarian (25%)
ESPN
25%
CBS*
22%
2 3 DIV MNF MNF
11 TB @ HOU Mon Night HOU FAV -2.5 — 50.5 Favorite
ESPN
28%
CBS*
25%
3 MNF MNF
Fill Candidates: Strong Signals Non-movers with 3+ stacking signals (dog + contrarian + div/prime).
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
12 LAR @ TEN Sun 1:00 TEN DOG +5.5 — 49.4 Underdog +5.5 ESPN contrarian (22%)
ESPN
22%
CBS*
19%
2 3
13 JAC @ CIN Sun 1:00 JAC DOG +3.5 — 49.3 Underdog +3.5 ESPN contrarian (26%)
ESPN
26%
CBS*
28%
2 3
14 CAR @ ARI Sun 4:25 CAR DOG +6.5 — 49.2 Underdog +6.5 ESPN contrarian (27%)
ESPN
27%
CBS*
14%
2 3
15 WAS @ GB Thu WAS DOG +3.5 — 48.3 Underdog +3.5 ESPN contrarian (46%)
ESPN
46%
CBS*
48%
2 THU
Remaining Games Few stacking signals. Low priority unless something changes.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
16 PHI @ KC Sun 4:25 KC DOG +1.5 — 48.9 Underdog +1.5 ESPN contrarian (35%)
ESPN
35%
CBS*
28%
2 3

Edge = estimated cover probability from key number analysis (movers only).

Composite = P(coveradj) × (1 − ownership). Expected rank impact: cover probability × fraction of field you gain on. Higher = better. Sorted by composite within each tier.

Leverage = edge% ÷ ownership%. Above 1.0× = edge exceeds field ownership. Higher = more standings value per pick.

* CBS% is predicted from historical behavioral models, not observed picks. ESPN% is real observed data.

Dots: 1 stale-line edge 2 underdog 3 contrarian (<40% ESPN)