NFL Pick-6 ATS
Simulation Weekly Pick Tester
Picks Standings
WK 1 · 16 games · 7 movers · Full card
Entry A 0/6
Entry B 0/6
1 Stale Line — Movement since Tuesday. Benefiting side covers 54–65% depending on magnitude.
2 Favorite Bias — Underdog + contrarian. Pool picks favorites 65% of the time; going the other way when signals align.
3 Game Theory — Low ownership = more ranking leverage. A correct pick at 15% ownership moves rank 2× vs 60%.
Tier 1: Highest Edge Key number crossings. Cover probability 58%+.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
1 CAR @ JAC Sun 1:00 JAC FAV -2.5 → -4.5
60.5%
2.0 pts moved KEY
58.0 0.8× Favorite
ESPN
74%
CBS*
84%
1
Tier 2: Solid Movers Meaningful stale-line edge (54–58%). Check leverage for best value.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
2 DAL @ PHI Thu PHI FAV -6.5 → -8.0
57.0%
1.5 pts moved KEY
56.5 0.7× Favorite
ESPN
80%
CBS*
89%
1 DIV THU
Tier 1: Highest Edge Key number crossings. Cover probability 58%+.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
3 LV @ NE Sun 1:00 LV DOG +3.5 → +2.5
58.2%
1.0 pts moved KEY
55.8 1.0× Underdog +3.5
ESPN
57%
CBS*
63%
1 2
Tier 3: Marginal Movers Line moved ≥1.0 but didn't cross key numbers. Edge is thinner.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
4 TB @ ATL Sun 1:00 ATL DOG +1.5 → +0.5
52.0%
1.0 pts moved
54.1 2.0× Underdog +1.5 ESPN contrarian (26%)
ESPN
26%
CBS*
38%
1 2 3 DIV
5 MIN @ CHI Mon Night CHI DOG +1.5 → +0.5
52.0%
1.0 pts moved
53.7 1.6× Underdog +1.5 ESPN contrarian (32%)
ESPN
32%
CBS*
43%
1 2 3 DIV MNF MNF
Tier 2: Solid Movers Meaningful stale-line edge (54–58%). Check leverage for best value.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
6 BAL @ BUF Sun Night BAL DOG +1.5 → -1.5
54.4%
3.0 pts moved
52.5 1.2× Underdog +1.5 ESPN contrarian (47%)
ESPN
47%
CBS*
55%
1 2 SNF
Tier 3: Marginal Movers Line moved ≥1.0 but didn't cross key numbers. Edge is thinner.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
7 TEN @ DEN Sun 4:25 DEN FAV -7.5 → -9.5
53.1%
2.0 pts moved
49.7 0.6× Favorite
ESPN
85%
CBS*
89%
1
Fill Candidates: Strong Signals Non-movers with 3+ stacking signals (dog + contrarian + div/prime).
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
8 CIN @ CLE Sun 1:00 CLE DOG +5.5 — 52.3 Underdog +5.5 ESPN contrarian (22%)
ESPN
22%
CBS*
34%
2 3 DIV
9 NYG @ WAS Sun 1:00 NYG DOG +6.5 — 52.0 Underdog +6.5 ESPN contrarian (30%)
ESPN
30%
CBS*
28%
2 3 DIV
10 SF @ SEA Sun 4:25 SEA DOG +2.5 — 52.0 Underdog +2.5 ESPN contrarian (29%)
ESPN
29%
CBS*
40%
2 3 DIV
11 KC @ LAC Other LAC DOG +3.5 — 51.9 Underdog +3.5 ESPN contrarian (32%)
ESPN
32%
CBS*
42%
2 3 DIV
12 ARI @ NO Sun 1:00 NO DOG +5.5 — 49.6 Underdog +5.5 ESPN contrarian (16%)
ESPN
16%
CBS*
16%
2 3
13 PIT @ NYJ Sun 1:00 NYJ DOG +3.5 — 49.4 Underdog +3.5 ESPN contrarian (21%)
ESPN
21%
CBS*
33%
2 3
Remaining Games Few stacking signals. Low priority unless something changes.
# A B GAME KICK PICK SIDE LINE EDGE COMPOSITE LEVERAGE DOG / BIAS OWNERSHIP CONTEXT
14 DET @ GB Sun 4:25 GB FAV -1.5 — 53.3 Favorite
ESPN
36%
CBS*
32%
3 DIV
15 MIA @ IND Sun 1:00 IND FAV -1.5 — 50.7 Favorite
ESPN
29%
CBS*
24%
3
16 HOU @ LAR Sun 4:25 HOU DOG +2.5 — 48.7 Underdog +2.5 ESPN contrarian (42%)
ESPN
42%
CBS*
26%
2

Edge = estimated cover probability from key number analysis (movers only).

Composite = P(coveradj) × (1 − ownership). Expected rank impact: cover probability × fraction of field you gain on. Higher = better. Sorted by composite within each tier.

Leverage = edge% ÷ ownership%. Above 1.0× = edge exceeds field ownership. Higher = more standings value per pick.

* CBS% is predicted from historical behavioral models, not observed picks. ESPN% is real observed data.

Dots: 1 stale-line edge 2 underdog 3 contrarian (<40% ESPN)